Mack eller Sack‑modellen står på två kanadensares axlar, William Mackintosh (Mack) och Harold Innis (Sack). De studerade samma råvarutunga periferi men landade i två fundamentalt olika slutsatser om dess öde.
Mack representerar det optimistiska perspektivet: möjligheten att växa inifrån och forma sin egen framtid, om de bara förädlade sina resurser, höll kvar kunskapen, och inte sålde iväg allt med röven före i en timmerstock. Lite som ett utvecklingskontor med självrespekt.
Sack representerar det pessimistiska perspektivet: hur andra kom och hämtade det värde som fanns på dessa platser. Som om marken var en Portello med sugrör långt utanför den egna regionen.
Modellens analysverktyg testas på Sveriges fyra norra län. Analysen tar sig an frågan om strukturell kapacitet genom att mäta regionala förutsättningar att bygga, förädla och styra sin egen utveckling.
Måttstocken mäter nivå av kapacitet/beroende där länen graderas i spannet mellan 0-100 (> 50 = Mack och < 50 = Sack). Det ger ett relativt värde som både berättar något om platsernas strukturella nuläge och om var det lutar.
Metoden är en indexbaserad analys, som i denna pilot bygger på fem indikatorer som fångar två centrala dimensioner:
- Struktur (andel externt huvudkontor, råvaruberoende, FoU i näringslivet)
- Riktning (förändring i FoU, unikhet i S3-strategi)
Indikatorerna vägs samman till två delindex, ett för nuläge och ett för rörelse, som sedan slås ihop till ett Mack eller Sack‑index på skalan noll till hundra.
Resultat visar att:
- Västernorrland, något överraskande, sticker ut som den mest balanserade regionen med medelstark struktur och ovanligt god rörelse.
- Västerbotten har en robust struktur och är Mack, men står still.
- Jämtland har nästan inga strukturella resurser alls och är Sack, men visionen pekar ändå rakt fram. Att röra sig är möjligt, även med tunna skor.
- I Norrbotten rusar regionalt BNP pga av betydande investeringar, utan att för den delen stärka den lokala/regionala kapaciteten. Istället tycks det handla om investerings- och inriktningsbeslut tagna externt.
Slutsatsen är att (i) strukturella förutsättningar och riktning varierar, men att (ii) strategisk riktning samtidigt kan skapa handlingsutrymme, även i svagare lägen, genom att bygga något som går att styra. Ytterligare en slutsats är att (iii) bristande samordning innebär en onödig risk för strategisk likriktning. Det kan i värsta fall innebära att länen springer på samma boll och driver interregional konkurrens om finansiering, etableringar och kompetens.
Mack eller Sack‑modellen gör inte anspråk på att förklara verkligheten. Den är inte en sanningsmaskin. Men det är en spegel som visar tillräckligt mycket för att börja prata om utvecklingens bakomliggande strukturer.
Om du vill se analysen i sin helhet med metodbeskrivning, siffror, index etc: ladda ner pilotanalysen i PDF:en här intill.
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