Okej, här kommer en spekulativ scenarioanalys av The Northvolt Circus.
Nuläge: In kliver Lyten, ett amerikanskt litiumsvavelbolag med fingertoppskänsla för konkursutförsäljning. De plockar fabriken i Skellefteå, forskningen i Västerås och några anläggningar i Polen och Tyskland till vrakpris. Politikerna kallar det nystart, andra kallar det repris.
Därifrån delar sig framtiden i tre möjliga vintrar.
Midvinterljus (Scenario 1)
2027 och Skellefteå låter åter som ett sågverk på högvarv. Lyten har lyckats med det Northvolt bara ritade på servetter, litiumsvavel i industriell skala. Kostnaderna går ner, batterierna väger mindre än ett paket skogaholmslimpa och orderböckerna är tjockare än valfri släktings fotoalbum från 80-talet.
Inflyttningen är tillbaka. Kommunen har lärt sig att bygga snabbare än folk hinner googla bostad Skellefteå. Modulhus poppar upp som kantareller i september och skolpaviljongerna fylls med barn vars föräldrar har titlar som inte ens fanns i stan för fem år sedan. Bryssel kallar det för Skellefteåmodellen, Lyten kallar det för sitt skyltfönster och lokalborna kallar det för bra drag men dyrt på Konsum.
Tjällossning (Scenario 2)
2027 och fabriken går men det är mer som att köra en Volvo 240 med släp över myrmark. Litiumsvavel fungerar men bara om ingen nyser på fel ställe. Varje kvartal är en jonglering av teknikstrul, investerarjakt och personal som undrar om det blir julbonus eller bara en extra termos i år.
Jobben finns, men det är färre än under Northvolts glansdagar. Inflyttningen är lagom, bostadsmarknaden andas ut och samhällsservicen får för första gången på länge en chans att komma ikapp. Skellefteå har ett industriprojekt som levererar men inte revolutionerar. Det är vedboden på gården, ingen vallfärdar för att se den men alla som bor där vet att den behövs.
Islossning och drivved (Scenario 3)
2027 och vårisen brister. Det som såg lovande ut i labbet visade sig ha samma hållfasthet som en våffla i diskhon. Produktionslinjerna står still, kostnaderna skjuter i höjden och Lyten försvinner ut genom bakdörren snabbare än någon hinner boka av konferensrummet.
Kvar står en industrilåda stor som en hangar. Elen är redan dragen och vaktbolaget patrullerar runt i elbilar som laddas av en anläggning som inte längre producerar något. Kommunen tar emot förslag. Europas största inomhusbad. Upplevelsecenter för renar. Världens första temapark baserad på Excel. Eller kanske ett stort jävla datacenter som vill ha den framdragna elen och vars värme absorberas av ett svinstort växthus som täcker den strandade valen. Designat som en stor Calskrove.
Slutreflektion
Att försöka förutsäga Skellefteås framtid just nu är som att försöka avgöra om en sjö kommer frysa till redan i november eller först i januari. Det går inte och det blir ändå alltid fel. Men något blir det. Infrastrukturen är helt enkelt för värdefull för att stå och damma men det är oklart om nästa kapitel blir science fiction eller buskis.
Oavsett om Lyten blir en framgångssaga, en långsam kompromiss eller en smäll rakt ner i isvaken kommer platsen att fortsätta vara ett experimentfält för allt från högteknologi till högst tveksamma idéer. Och det gör Skellefteå till en intressant plats.
Vi tror inte på scenario 1, håller tummarna för scenario 2 men killgissar på scenario 3, som kanske inte är så dumt det heller.
Kanske handlar dessa godtyckliga scenarios om tre grader av framgång? Kanske är det förväntningarna som ställer till det?
87 svar till ”Tre vintrar – en batterisaga mellan sci-fi och buskis”
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